Anal cancer risk

Preventable cases

Anal cancer cases are preventable, UK, 2015

Caused by infections

Anal cancer cases caused by infections, UK, 2015

The estimated lifetime risk of being diagnosed with anal cancer is 1 in 280 (less than 1%) for females, and 1 in 720 (less than 1%) for males born in 1961 in the UK. [1]

These figures have been calculated on the assumption that the possibility of having more than one diagnosis of anal cancer over the course of a lifetime is very low ('Current Probability' method).[2]

References

  1. Lifetime risk estimates calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK 2023.
  2. Estève J, Benhamou E, Raymond L. Statistical methods in cancer research. Volume IV. Descriptive epidemiology. IARC Sci Publ. 1994;(128):1-302.

About this data

Data is for UK, past and projected cancer incidence and mortality and all-cause mortality rates for those born in 1961, ICD-10 C15.

Calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK, 2023 (as yet unpublished). Lifetime risk of being diagnosed with cancer for people in the UK born in 1961. Based on method from Esteve et al. 1994 [2], using projected cancer incidence (using data up to 2018) calculated by the Cancer Intelligence Team at Cancer Research UK and projected all-cause mortality (using data up to 2020, with adjustment for COVID impact) calculated by Office for National Statistics. Differences from previous analyses are attributable mainly toslowing pace of improvement in life expectancy, and also to slowing/stabilising increases in cancer incidence.

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91% of anal cancer cases in the UK are preventable.[1].

Anal cancer risk is associated with a number of risk factors.[2,3]

Anal Cancer Risk Factors

  Increases risk Decreases risk
'Sufficient' or 'convincing' evidence
  • Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1
  • Human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16
  
'Limited' or 'probable' evidence
  • HPV types 18, 33
  

International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classification. World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) classification does not include anal cancer because it is not generally recognised to have a relationship to food, nutrition, and physical activity.

See also

Want to generate bespoke preventable cancers stats statements? Download our interactive statement generator.

Find out more about the definitions and evidence for this data

Learn how attributable risk is calculated

References

  1. Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer 2018. 
  2. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 122*. Accessed August 2018.
  3. World Cancer Research Fund / American Institute for Cancer Research. Continuous Update Project Findings & Reports. Accessed October 2016.
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International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1] 91% of anal cancer cases in the UK are caused by HPV infection.[2]

Around 91% of anal cancers in women and 75% in men are HPV-positive, a meta-analysis showed.[3]

Anal cancer risk may be higher in people participating in anal sexual behaviours (including but not limited to receptive anal intercourse), accordingly anal cancer risk is higher in men who have sex with men (MSM), compared with other men.[4]

UK portrait version shown here. Country versions, cancers caused by other risk factors, and landscape formats are available for free from our cancer risk publications.

References

  1. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 122*. Accessed August 2018.
  2. Brown KF, Rumgay H, Dunlop C, et al. The fraction of cancer attributable to known risk factors in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the UK overall in 2015. British Journal of Cancer 2018. 
  3. De Vuyst H, Clifford GM, Nascimento MC, et al. Prevalence and type distribution of human papillomavirus in carcinoma and intraepithelial neoplasia of the vulva, vagina and anus: a meta-analysis. Int J Cancer 2009;124(7):1626-36.
  4. Grulich AE, Poynten IM, Machalek DA, et al. The epidemiology of anal cancer. Sex Health. 2012 Dec;9(6):504-8.
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International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies the role of this risk factor in cancer development.[1] People with HIV infection often also have human papillomavirus (HPV), and HIV may facilitate initiation or persistence of HPV infection; HIV-related UK anal cancer cases are included in the HPV-attributable proportion above.[2]

Anal cancer risk is 28-29 times higher in people with HIV infection, compared with the general population, with no difference between men and women, meta-analyses have shown.[3,4] Anal cancer risk in people with HIV infection may be higher in current smokers, those with concurrent HPV infection, and those with more advanced HIV infection, a nested case-control study showed.[5]

Anal cancer risk is more than 3 times higher in HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) compared with other HIV-positive men, a cohort study showed.[6] Anal cancer incidence is 78 per 100,000 per year in HIV-positive MSMs, compared with 5 per 100,000 per year in HIV-negative MSMs, a meta-analysis has shown.[7]

References

  1. International Agency for Research on Cancer. List of Classifications by cancer sites with sufficient or limited evidence in humans, Volumes 1 to 122*. Accessed August 2018.
  2. World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research. Food, Nutrition, Physical Activity, and the Prevention of Cancer: a Global Perspective. Washington DC: AICR; 2007.
  3. Grulich AE, van Leeuwen MT, Falster MO, et al. Incidence of cancers in people with HIV/AIDS compared with immunosuppressed transplant recipients: a meta-analysis. Lancet 2007;370(9581):59-67.
  4. Shiels MS, Cole SR, Kirk GD, et al. A meta-analysis of the incidence of non-AIDS cancers in HIV-infected individuals. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2009;52(5):611-22.
  5. Bertisch B, Franceschi S, Lise M, et al. Risk factors for anal cancer in persons infected with HIV: a nested case-control study in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Am J Epidemiol 2013;178(6):877-84.
  6. Silverberg MJ, Lau B, Justice AC, et al. Risk of anal cancer in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals in North America. Clin Infect Dis 2012;54(7):1026-34.
  7. Machalek DA, Poynten M, Jin F, et al. Anal human papillomavirus infection and associated neoplastic lesions in men who have sex with men: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Oncol 2012;13(5):487-500.
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Anal cancer risk may be higher in smokers compared with non-smokers; the association is probably independent of other risk factors including human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, and may reflect an immunosuppressive effect of smoking.[1]

References

  1. Grulich AE, Poynten IM, Machalek DA, et al. The epidemiology of anal cancer. Sex Health. 2012 Dec;9(6):504-8.
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